# Puzzle #238: Puzzle Errors

Somehow, last week’s puzzle did not appear in Kamloops This Week; an older puzzle appeared instead. In any given week, what are the chances of an error?

The KTW staff might err, or I might err. Let us assume that 80% of the time, the editor (Christopher Foulds) passes along my submission and makes sure it is understood. In this case, there is a 0.05% chance that an error will be made. The other 20% of the time, he is busy on breaking news and simply passes my submission along in which case, there is a 0.2% chance of an error. With me, there is a greater risk, say 0.3%, that I will make an error. To the nearest 0.1%, what is the chance that, any given week, a correct puzzle will appear correctly?

[Note: These chances for error are probably quite a bit higher than reality, but what would be the fun in an answer of 100.0% or even 99.9%?]

Submit your answer to Gene Wirchenko <genew@telus.net>. Your answer should be in the form of a proof. That means to show how your answer must be correct. The deadline is Wednesday, December 27, 2017 at noon Pacific Time. I will post the answer shortly after.